Glasgow: Brexit- What it means for Banking and Finance
We were delighted to be hosted by Genpact, their first sponsored event since they have had a presence in Glasgow. Genpact is a global professional services firm delivering true transformation utilising data and digital innovation to enhance and deliver digitally-enabled operations for their clients.
The event was a highly informative “Hot Topic” session with Dr Graeme Roy, Director of the Fraser Allander Institute. Dr Roy is a hugely accomplished Economics and Finance Professor, with over 8 years’ experience advising the Scottish Government, formerly Senior Economic Advisor to the First Minister. The Fraser Allander Institute blends cutting edge academic research with close engagement to the business and policy communities across Scotland and beyond. Encouraging and informing public debate through high quality independent advice and analysis.
Graeme gave us a whistle stop tour of how we have come to where we are, what the future may hold and the key points to note in terms of Brexit and its implications for Scotland and the wider UK, with special emphasis on the Financial Services market.
The economic outlook for Scotland is currently uncertain, the same is true across the wider UK, Graeme remarked that we have a lot of data and intelligence following the integrations and unions of countries, however not much to go on for our current situation. It will likely be quite sometime before the impact and implications are actually known. The lack of preparation and policy is stark, and Dr Roy quoted Eisenhower; “Plans are nothing; planning is everything.”, he feels this resonates.
The economy has held up relatively well, scaling back plans for future investment had been the key indicator of uncertainty. The long-term implications are obviously unknown but will include impact on Trading Relationships, International Investment, Population & Labour markets and Fiscal Contributions.
Key takeaways for me included the following key stats:
- Around 40% of Scottish international exports are to the EU
- 230,000 EU nationals live in Scotland
- Scotland ranked 2nd in the UK for international investment
- EU demand is estimated to support over 130,00 jobs across Scotland each year
Behind Petroleum, beverages are Scotland’s 2nd key export, a whole lot of whisky will be included in that number, and fish & crustaceans is a close second, however across the UK these rank 19th and 31st, which shows that there are clear differences between Scotland and the UK, particularly in exports.
Unresolved Issues: UK policy post-Brexit
- Higher or lower regulation
- Future of migration policy
- Implications from being outside EU structure:
Structural Funds 7 CAP
Net “savings” – repatriation of net contribution of £8.5bn
European Investment Bank
University research funding & students
The presentation ended with thoughts about the current mood of business and the potential opportunities and on the importance of contingency planning for all businesses and their supply chains. Dr Graeme Roy spoke with great insight and truly understood his audience, giving a well-received and expertly structured overview of where we are at, the likely challenges and great pointers around preparation and preparing.
Full details of the event are available to WIBF members, please do contact Laura in Glasgow for further details.